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As Auburn proved, a team can come out of nowhere and win the National Championship.

The way I see it, 2011 is a three horse race between Alabama, LSU and Oklahoma. It will become a two horse race after November 5th when LSU travels to Tuscaloosa. I expect the winner of that game to go onto New Orleans and beat the Sooners.

The rest:
Boise – Schedule is too weak. The only way they get in the big game is if all the big boys have 2 or more losses.
Stanford – I know everyone is in love with Andrew Luck, but his head coach is gone and historically hyped players have a less than stellar follow-up season: Mark Ingram, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, etc.
Florida State – With a weak ACC, the Seminoles could sneak in there if they beat Oklahoma.
Oregon – After losing bad to LSU, it’s going to be tough to get back in the mix.
Arkansas – if they can go undefeated (Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn. MSU, S Carolina) they deserve the BCS birth.
Wisconsin – The Badgers could sneak in the back door behind NC State transfer QB Russell Wilson but they will have to go through Nebraska and back-to-back road games versus Michigan State and Ohio State. Then there is the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.
Nebraska – The Cornhuskers basically the same story as Wisconsin but have OSU & MSU at home. October 10th in Madison, WI will be huge.

The Little Caesars Bowl in Detroit pitted Toledo (8-4) vs. Florida International (6-6) on a NFL Sunday the day after Christmas. Could you pick a worse time? Ford Field holds 65,000. The reported (i.e. alleged) attendance was 32,431.

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The Karma Bowl (aka: Independence Bowl) Last year the Georgia Tech (6-6) fans had a good laugh at Georgia for going to the Indy Bowl in Shreveport, La. The tables have turned, Nerds. Air Force (8-4) and GT are both running teams. So this game should be over by 7pm.    Dec. 27 ESPN 5pm

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Finally, some interesting games with worthier teams:

Champs Sports N.C. State (8-4) quarterback Russell Wilson had a breakout year throwing for 3,288 yards and 26 touchdowns. After three losing seasons, things finally seemed to be clicking for coach Tom O’Brien until the Terps lost the season finale to Maryland and the ACC Atlantic division title.  Despite being 9-3, West Virginia has been a bit of a disappointment. They were thought to be a lock for the conference champ in a weak Big East. But a 2-game hiccup in October dashed their hopes of a BCS game. The Mountaineers recently hired a coach-in-waiting, so who will the players listen to? Orlando, Fla. Dec. 28 6:30 p.m. ESPN

Insight I hope these two black & gold teams don’t get mixed up. Missouri (10-2) made some noise earlier in the season by upsetting #1 Oklahoma and going 7-0. Then reality set in with two straight Big XII losses (Nebraska, Texas Tech). Iowa (7-5) and QB Ricky Stanzi did not have the senior season they were hoping for. They hung the only loss on Michigan State this year but lost their last three (Northwestern, Ohio State, Minnesota). Tempe, Ariz. Dec. 28 10 p.m. ESPN

Hey, coach. Which team am I on again?