As Auburn proved, a team can come out of nowhere and win the National Championship.

The way I see it, 2011 is a three horse race between Alabama, LSU and Oklahoma. It will become a two horse race after November 5th when LSU travels to Tuscaloosa. I expect the winner of that game to go onto New Orleans and beat the Sooners.

The rest:
Boise – Schedule is too weak. The only way they get in the big game is if all the big boys have 2 or more losses.
Stanford – I know everyone is in love with Andrew Luck, but his head coach is gone and historically hyped players have a less than stellar follow-up season: Mark Ingram, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker, etc.
Florida State – With a weak ACC, the Seminoles could sneak in there if they beat Oklahoma.
Oregon – After losing bad to LSU, it’s going to be tough to get back in the mix.
Arkansas – if they can go undefeated (Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn. MSU, S Carolina) they deserve the BCS birth.
Wisconsin – The Badgers could sneak in the back door behind NC State transfer QB Russell Wilson but they will have to go through Nebraska and back-to-back road games versus Michigan State and Ohio State. Then there is the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game.
Nebraska – The Cornhuskers basically the same story as Wisconsin but have OSU & MSU at home. October 10th in Madison, WI will be huge.